The Fallacy of the 52.4 Break Even Rate

All over the net I see people, even professional sports bettors, declare that a 52.4% win rates are needed to interrupt even betting on sports. The concept being introduced forth is the fact that to be able to profit you have to win over fifty percent of the games.

That’s a very harmful idea. It leads individuals to take bad odds trying to accomplish this rate. Additionally, it leads them from better odds making it simpler to learn. The truth is, the win rate needed to interrupt even or profit isn’t set. It’s totally determined by the lines you play, and may vary from 40 to 60 %, or maybe more.

Should you requested most sports bettors, the believe they can rapidly retire when they could only try to win 60% of the bets. Which may be true should you bet solely on point spreads. However if you simply do this on money lines of -200 the only real factor which will happen rapidly is you go under.

Win rates and profitability are in accordance with the lines you play. One player may win 55% of the bets and generate losses, while another may win 45% in a good profit. The simple truth is, win rate has little related to profiting on betting on sports.

The gamer who bets limited to  150 will break even in a 40% win rate, as the player who bets limited to -150 will break even at 60%. The large question you need to think about is that this. Could it be simpler to win 40% at  150, or 60% at -150?

The reply is that it’s simpler to win 40% at  150. This is because the books need to shade toward the dogs since most people have a tendency to bet on favorites. This is the inevitable consequence of the most popular notion that you need to win over fifty percent of the bets to learn.

Simple to use enough to determine within the lines. Whenever a dog is  150, the favourite is generally near to -170. This situation here is from Vegas Insider.

11/11 1:05 PM

51 Tampa Bay Boston

 150 -170

 150 -170

To be able to break even around the favorite at -170, you have to win 63% of times. To interrupt even around the dog at  150, you have to win 40% of times. Within this situation, a bet around the favorite has been billed an additional 20 since most bets is going to be in it, as the dog goes in the books estimation of the particular odds from the outcome.

With regards to point spreads, you need to do actually need 52.4% to interrupt even at -110, and all sorts of players share the vig. But on money lines, the vig always will get compensated by individuals who bet around the favorites. And you’ll find nearly every line reflects a 3% differential (63 40=103%). Not coincidentally, that virtually reflects the break even number of your average spread bet.

The best way forward would be to overlook the winning percentage, and concentrate on the lines. The books place the profit the lines for individuals who bet on dogs. It’s not necessary to win 52.4% of the bets to interrupt even. You just need to go in which the cash is.